The Daily Decision for 2.9.18 - Is This Really About Rates?


The State of the Markets:

I usually don't write on Friday mornings. However, with the Dow experiencing its second quadruple-digit dance to the downside of the week yesterday, I figured it was probably time to make an exception.

The goal of this morning's hopefully not-so meandering market missive is to try and answer the key question of the day. As in, what the heck is going on here?

Okay, let's dive in and try to make some sense of yesterday's trash-job in the stock market. Cutting to the chase, the narrative seems to be that once you get past the high-speed algorithmic trading (those robos DO love following their trends on a millisecond basis!), the forced selling (can you say, "margin call?"), and the deleveraging that is likely occurring in hedgie-land (hey guys, maybe this isn't the time to have the pedal to the metal anymore, right?), the focus lands squarely on interest rates.

The Story of Rates - A Two Parter

In my opinion, there are really two parts to the rate story. First, there is the level of rates. And then there is the speed at which rates are rising.

The market can probably handle the first part. However, the second part means that something is changing and adjustments are being made - and being made quickly.

Lest we forget, bond yields have been rising for a while now. In other words, the rate move didn't start happening last week. The breakout that seems to be attracting everyone's attention began on December 19, 2017. And since that time, the yield on the U.S. 10-Year has risen from 2.39% to 2.85%. That's a pretty steep climb. And some will even argue that this move, like the stock market before it, has "gone parabolic."

One of the keys here is ...

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The Daily Decision for 2.6.18 - What is Real and What is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

During times of market stress, one of the biggest challenges is trying to determine what is real and what is artificial.

When markets spike - in either direction - there is usually some sort of ...

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The Daily Decision - FOMO Has Taken Over - For Good Reason?


The State of the Markets:

As we enter the final week of what is turning out to be the best January since 1989, the macro drivers of the market remain the same. Cutting to the chase, investors continue to look ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.22.18 - No Time To Be a Hero


The State of the Markets:

To review, my first report each week is intended to take a big-picture, macro view of the overall market environment. The idea is to start the week with what we hope will be a solid ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.18.18 - The New Market Narrative: Dilly Dilly!


The State of the Markets:

Bearish reversal? What bearish reversal? It turns out that Wednesday's market narrative made a mockery of Tuesday's hand wringing relating to a potential government shut down and the end of QE as we know it. ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.17.18 - Did Something Just Crawl Out Of The Woodwork?


The State of the Markets:

And we're back... After months of little to no volatility, the bears got back into the game yesterday, putting on a pretty decent show on the first day of the week's trade.

Stocks started the ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.16.18 - Bulls May Need To Slow Their Roll


The State of the Markets:

The bulls encountered a bit of a challenge early last week, but by Friday appeared to be none the worse for wear as the rip-snorting bull run of 2018 continued unabated.

However, at least on ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.11.18 - Bond Panic May Be Fake News


The State of the Markets:

After moving to within a whisker of the 2.6% level (2.595% to be exact) yesterday, the yield on the U.S. Government's 10-Year Treasury pulled back in the afternoon and closed at 2.55%. The key is ...

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The Daily Decision for 1.10.18 - Are Bonds Crossing the Line in the Sand?


The State of the Markets:

When stocks enter what I like to call "melt up" mode, everything is right with the world. The economic data is strong. Earnings are fantastic. Inflation is low. Consumers are happy and shopping. Employers are ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.8.18 - Bulls On The Run


2018 YTD Performance Update:
DD TRADING Model: +3.2%
DD LEADERS MOdel: +2.8%
S&P 500: +2.6%


The State of the Market:

With the S&P 500 up 2.6% so far in 2018, it appears that, barring an unforeseen disaster today, the market ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.3.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Take...

While much of Wall Street is still enjoying the holiday season, there is a fair amount of action for market participants to digest today. First, I'd be ...

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The Daily Decisions for 1.2.18


2017 Performance Update: Daily Decision LEADERS +23.91%
(vs. S&P 500 19.40%)


Today's Model Review:

LEADERS Model: The LEADERS currently holds positions in the Technology, Industrials, Health Care, and Financial sectors.

However, given the rotation occurring in market leadership, we are ...

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