The NEW Daily Decision for 11.2.18 - Of Jobs, Apple, and Trade


Portfolio Strategy Update:

As long-time members know, we don't spend a lot of time (almost none, actually) touting our views on the market or making "calls" about what to expect next. In our more than 40-years of combined market experience, we've learned that such efforts are at best a fool's errand and harmful to investors. You see, no one has been able to consistently "call" the market for any extended period. As such, we prefer to utilize a rules-guided approach.

With that said however, we are growing increasingly concerned about the mounting evidence regarding the potential for the current corrective phase to morph into a cyclical or "mini" bear market. While such declines have historically been shorter and shallower than your "average bear" (-23% vs. -32% on average over 8 months), we believe it is important to try and lose the least amount possible in our portfolios during bear market cycles.

So, despite the current rebound and the strong seasonal backdrop, we will be looking for opportunities to reduce exposure to risk. This was the primary reason we eliminated our position in QLD. By swapping the NASDAQ 100 index for the S&P 500, we reduced the beta of the overall portfolio. We expect to continue to take such action in the coming weeks.

The good news is that the BEST opportunities for gains in the stock market tend to occur as bear markets come to an end! So, while the coming months could prove challenging, keep in mind that a meaningful decline will likely lead to the next big bull opportunity.

The State of the Markets:

It's the first Friday of the month, which means it is time for the Big Kahuna of economic data - the jobs report. So, without further ado, let's get to the report and review ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.30.18 - Two Ways To Improve The Mood


The State of the Markets:

There can be no denying that we've got a nasty market on our hands. A market where the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average can be up 300 points one moment and down 600 the next. ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.29.18 - How Low Can It Go?


The State of the Markets:

Are we having fun yet? To be sure, the recent stock market correction has created some angst as the bears have knocked -7.55% off the DJIA, -9.63% off the S&P 500, -12.60% off the NASDAQ ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.22.18 - Sifting Through The Conflicting Evidence


The State of the Markets:

From my seat, the most important question on this fine Monday morning is if stocks are currently in the "retest" stage of a waterfall decline, which means that we are likely closer to the end ...

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The NEW Daily Decision - Checking The Playbook


The State of the Markets:

My guess is that after Wednesday's action, everyone is feeling a little better about the state of the stock market. While the bears and their algos mounted another series of attacks yesterday, good prevailed over ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.15.18 - Understanding The Algos and Systematic Sellers


The State of the Markets:

Before we dive in to any sort of subjective analysis about the current state of the markets or what may or may not come next, I think it is important to note that our Indicator ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.12.18 - What Is Real And What Is Artificial?


The State of the Markets:

What a difference a few days can make in this business, right? Seven days ago, the Dow closed at a fresh all-time high. The market narrative at the time was well known. The economy was ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.11.18 - Assuming The Worst


The State of the Markets:

Not surprisingly, I spent much of yesterday afternoon on the telephone speaking with advisors about what the heck was happening in the stock market. With the Dow just five days removed from an all-time high, ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.8.18 - Time To Hit Reset?


The State of the Markets:

As long-time readers are aware, the main objective of my oftentimes meandering market missive is to identify the driving forces behind the action in the stock market. For the past 20+ years, my thinking has ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.3.18 - TRADE ALERT EXPECTED TODAY

The NEW Daily Decision Portfolio

NOTE: TRADE ALERTS LIKELY TODAY

Our Risk Managed Growth System is telling us to reduce exposure today. As such, we will be cutting our positions in SSO and QLD in half.

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The latest upgrade ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 10.1.18 - Bulls Remain In Charge, But...


The State of the Markets:

It was a busy weekend filled with family, travel, and the passing of a pet, so I'm going to skip the subjective analysis of the stock market and let the indicators do most of the ...

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The NEW Daily Decision for 9.24.18 - Will Valuations Spoil The Bull's Party?


The State of the Markets:

In spite of the escalating trade "skirmish" and a long list of purported negatives, stocks continued to trudge higher last week with the DJIA finishing at a new all-time high on Friday. The S&P 500 ...

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