I get it. The world is ending. North Korea has a bomb. None knows what kind of a bomb but apparently a damn big one. China is slowing and they dropped the yuan again this week. The middle east is one camel hair away from birthing World War III. The always highly reliable and accurate forward PE of the S&P 500is at the highest level since 2005 according to Factset. Factset is also predicting that “For Q4 2015, the estimated earnings decline is -4.7%. If the index reports a decline in earnings for Q4, it will mark the first time the index has seen three consecutive quarters of year over-year declines in earnings since Q1 2009 through Q3 2009.” Right now the stock market appears to have all the attraction of a warmed over pile of puppy poop.
There are very legitimate concerns. Frankly the situation in the Mid-East is the most disconcerting to me. We have a major sectarian religious conflict that could verge into a huge conflict now added to the ongoing attempt to build a caliphate and outlaw every belief set that is not exactly in line with sick perversions of religion that that ISIS follows. Of major concern is that you have the Russians, The French and the US conducting major military operation in the area. If you are not worried about this you are not paying attention.
Oil and China are two of the biggest concerns facing the market so I guess we should talk about those. Some folks think oil will go down below $20. Other think we are near a bottom and prices will soon turn higher. T. Boone Pickens remains unabashedly bullish and cite Mid East region and a lack of spare capacity as reasons for prices to reach $70 or more ...
