Friday Addition Edition

I heard it again this morning. Paying attention to valuation doesn't matter anymore. There is so much cash and so many new traders in the markets. The stock market is just going to keep going higher for the foreseeable future.

Nothing matters but price movement.

The pandemic is over, and it's time to party.

Even as prices are rising, traders buy into Jay Powell's idea that this is all temporary due to supply chain disruptions and other interim measures. The trillions of dollars that have been pumped into the economy by the Fed and Congress have nothing whatsoever to do with all this.

Even the bond markets are buying it right now. The 2- and the 10-year yield curve is retreating after a short-lived bounce. 10Year yield is up a bit today, but it is still just 1.53%.

The vaunted bond market vigilantes of my youth have rident off into the sunset, and either we are living in a brave new world, or the vigilantes will return to do their worst at some point.

The last time high yield credit spreads were this low was back in 2007. No one thought risk still existed back then either. The lowest spread of the previous decade before today was in December of 2019.

I am not saying that High yield spreads are predicting anything specific. All they did was tell us that things were too complacent for something not to go wrong.

Am I suggesting you should sell everything and hide in cash?

No.

Throw it all into gold?

No. Although there is some evidence from Verdad Associates that using a 200-day MA-based trend following approach to gold when conditions resembling the current environment are in place has worked pretty well.

Gold is back below that level right now, so you would ...

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Another takeover, another 3x return on invested capital

Columbia Banking System, Inc. (NASDAQ: COLB, “Columbia”), the holding company for Columbia State Bank, and Bank of Commerce Holdings (NASDAQ: BOCH, “Bank of Commerce”), the holding company for Merchants Bank of Commerce, today announced the signing of a definitive agreement ...

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A focus bank takeover for a more than 3X return

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. and TAMPA, Fla., June 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boards of Directors of Lake Michigan Credit Union ("LMCU") and Pilot Bancshares, Inc, (OTCQX: PLBN), the holding company for Tampa-based Pilot Bank and National Aircraft ...

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Focus Bank Takeover- a more than 3x return for us

GRAND RAPIDS, Mich. and TAMPA, Fla., June 16, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- The Boards of Directors of Lake Michigan Credit Union ("LMCU") and Pilot Bancshares, Inc, (OTCQX: PLBN), the holding company for Tampa-based Pilot Bank and National Aircraft ...

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Another Takeover at 2.5x our cost!

First Bancorp (Nasdaq: FBNC), the parent company of First Bank, and Select Bancorp, Inc. ("Select") (Nasdaq: SLCT), the parent company of Select Bank and Trust Company ("Select Bank"), announced today the signing of a definitive merger agreement under which First ...

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Friday Edition: Dividends, Buybacks and massive profits

This week I am returning to the idea of shareholder yield. Last time we talked about combing high shareholder yields combined with insider buying. One of three picks, Mannatech (MTEX), announced a tender offer this morning, and the stock has ...

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Friday Addition Edition: Banks, PE loans and Aloe Vera

Most of you have been with me for some time now and are aware that I spend a lot of time testing ideas and strategies. I get lots of ideas, and as Victor Niederhoffer once said," If it can be ...

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Friday Edition- Big Sellers and Under the Radar Ideas

I read the headlines this morning, and it's really hard not to laugh out loud at the mainstream media and analyst community and see what they find surprising.

Everyone is surprised that retail sales do not match last month's. Sales ...

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Friday Addition Edition- Surprised Experts, Big Sellers and ,Under the Radar Ideas

I read the headlines this morning, and it's really hard not to laugh out loud at the mainstream media and analyst community and see what they find surprising.

Everyone is surprised that retail sales do not match last month's. Sales ...

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Friday Addition- A Random Walk

This morning I am just taking a walk through the markets kicking tires and turning over rocks in the constant search for opportunities. Rather than bore you with more data from the Fed (as important as that is in the ...

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Friday Addition Edition- A Random Walk

This morning I am just taking a walk through the markets kicking tires and turning over rocks in the constant search for opportunities. Rather than bore you with more data from the Fed (as important as that is in the ...

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Takeover #2 for the year- a 269% Return!

GREEN BAY, Wis. and MANISTIQUE, Mich., April 12, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. (NASDAQ: NCBS) ("Nicolet") and Mackinac Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: MFNC) ("Mackinac") today jointly announced the execution of a definitive merger agreement, ...

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