Bank CEOs: M&A is on the way

Imagine going out to coach the Super Bowl with the other teams playbook in your possession. You will have a huge edge over the other team and your odds of victory will skyrocket because you know exactly what the other team is going to do. That is exactly what is going on with community bank stocks. I spend a lot of my time reviewing the earnings releases and conference calls of the leading regional and community banks to get a feel for what I going on in my favorite industry.

This quarter the big thing on everyone’s mind is M&A. Banks know they need to get bigger and in a slow growth world the only way to accomplish the task is to buy another bank. Knowing that there are active buyers we can assemble a list of likely targets and enjoy huge profits when they are taken over at a large premium to out purchase price. In the 2 and ½ years since I started Banking on Profits we have been involved in about 25 takeovers and as these bank CEOs are telling on this quarters earnings calls the deal pace is going to accelerate the rest of this year and into next.

Seacoast Banking (SBCF)

Through our acquisitions, we have strengthened our presence in Central Florida. We're now Orlando's largest Florida-based bank and are a top-ten bank in that market, one of the nations' fastest growing markets. In fact Orlando led the U.S. in job creation in 2015.

We believe that our reputation as a seasoned aggregator of banks will benefit us in completing additional carefully considered acquisitions going forward.

We look for acquisitions to supplement that growth where it really makes sense and so the really key attribute for us is focusing on the customers that we're acquiring and determining whether they fit into our strategy going forward. And thus far, the acquisitions have significantly improved some of our performance metrics as we've integrated them into this larger issue of transformation. So they're very impactful and we'll continue to look for opportunities.

As we stated earlier, that continues to be a component of our value creation and when we see opportunities to do that, we certainly want to take advantage of them. So I wouldn't say we lead with M&A; we do use it to supplement our organic growth. We'll continue to see that. I think the environment out there, right now, a lot of smaller banks that maybe have questionable value that we've seen out there and we'll just continue to stay alert to opportunities.

Hilltop Holdings (HTH)

Well, I think it's similar to what we’ve said for several quarters, but just we continue to pursue M&A opportunities and we’re actively evaluating several opportunities and, but at the same time being patient. And I think that we review our excess capital, the primary purpose for it will be M&A.

State Bank Financial (STBZ)

We like things that we think we can make money with. We like doing business with bankers that we know. We think that good bank acquisitions fall into one or two buckets, either it's a distressed deal at a bargain where the price reflects the fact that you don't have to go in and make cultural structural changes, and change is priced in; on the other side of the coin, it better be something that culturally fits so closely that you expect minimal disruptions to the style and manner in which the bank does business. We've also consistently said that we want banks or businesses that make us better and not just bigger; and we look at a lot of deals to make one work. We still certainly have the capacity; and as you've seen over the last several years, they come in spurts.

Investors Bancorp (ISBC)

Certainly deals of $1 billion, but really deposit-rich organizations that enhance the deposit franchise. And it could be anywhere from $1 billion to $5 billion. And looking in the – not going down to Florida or anything like that; that are contiguous to our geographic franchise.

We believe in singles and doubles are the way to go, and like the Princeton transaction and our eight previous acquisitions, that’s really our views on M&A in this marketplace. As we continue to execute on our strategic plan, we will not venture away from our core business activities. They are: smart organic growth, M&A that enhances our franchise and shareholder value, stock buybacks, and dividends to our shareholders.

Midwest One Financial Group (MOFG)

In terms of M&A, there is some activity in M&A and we've had the opportunity to look at banks during the past quarter in both of our footprints. And I think that it's fair to say that we expect that to continue. I think there are a lot of conversations that are taking place. There's certainly not anything imminent with our company, but just the landscape I think especially with the smaller banks I think more and more it just appears that there will be more deals, I would think, over the next 6 to 12 months.

Southside Bancshares (SBSI)

The basic conversations definitely picked up, we are definitely hearing form -- from more folks that have an interest. Pricing expectations it's kind of all over the board, some people's pricing expectations are unrealistic, others are realistic obviously those that are more what we would consider realistic were, the conversations we're more interested in. And so where our currency is and the markets that some of these folks are in, we're actively considering and there's a possibility if everything makes sense.

United Community Banks (UCBI)

Certainly the second quarter results show that investments in organic growth are achieving solid results. They almost always do and that is why they continue to be our primary focus. At the same time, acquisitions have been and will be an important part of our growth strategy. To appeal to us, an acquisition opportunity must meet four criteria; must be accretive to earnings per share; it must have a reasonable earn back of tangible book value dilution; it must be strategically compelling; and it must have low execution risk.

Really nothing has changed relative to our overall strategy, yes conversations continued to occur. Certainly there are a number of incoming calls, there is a handful of institutions that under the right financial circumstances, we would have a very strong interest in. The geography is the same within the four states that we have talked about, could be in new markets, could be in markets that would create overlap and obviously significant cost saves. The criteria is the same as I mentioned few moments ago.

Size wise, just to kind of pick a number, we would feel comfortable probably between 500 or may be couple billion dollars what we would call our sweet spot. There would be a case possibly of being under the $500 million again a lot of that is, in fact all of that is strategic in our view.

Well certainly we’ve had incoming calls from both of those (public and private banks)-- the general theme that I continue to hear are those things that particularly in that $300-$400-$500 million or may be even larger than that whether they are private or whether they are public, continue to look at various alternatives. Certainly the operating environment is very challenging but what I see just time and time again that is probably tripping their thinking over to may be selling is a liquidity event.

Trustmark (TRMK)

As far as where our focus is it remains in the South East. We would like to expand in some of the growth areas within states like Alabama and Florida. We do not have a footprint in Georgia and we believe that would a good opportunity for us. And obviously, Texas remains a state that where we are primarily in the Huston area we are doing business in some of the other markets and could be helpful to have the positive footprint, a banking footprint in some of those other metropolitan market in Texas. So that's where our focus is from a geographic standpoint.

Size standpoint we said, we will do any opportunity that we think enhances long term value somewhere in the $300 million to $3 billion size, our opportunities that we have taken advantage of before and can manage we believe are in the scope of our ability to manage. So in each deal is a little bit different. But that is general, a range and scope of what we would be doing.

Center States Bank (CSFL)

And the third strategy continues to be M&A. While not necessary, given our scale right now, we will pursue a partner if the price is right, the geography is right and it will help us leverage our expense base or accelerate our fee business -- our lines of business.

As for M&A during 2015 there were 20 announced bank sales in Florida, which brings us down now to about 141 banks remaining in the state. There have only been three sales announced in Florida through the first seven months of the year including one announced today. However, based on the activity that we're seeing the number of closings should occur at a much faster pace in the back half of the year. We have evaluated a few possible partners now but our current capital levels and earnings profile, we feel no pressure to announce a transaction for the sake of growing assets.

Bay Hills Bancorp (BHLB)

Well, I think that there are a lot of deals out there we could do whether or not we can do them, is another question. I mean, I'll be honest with you right now we are kind of focused on getting through the First Choice acquisition integrating it, making it work really well for us and getting all the benefits out of that, that we think we can get. And then if there are other opportunities to look at as we come to the end of that then I would jump on them. But remember Mark, for us and I know you this, it's always a financial element to it. So if we find a partner that wants to do something with us that really believe that the financials can work and the metrics can work, we are always all ears.

First Merchants (FRME)

We feel good about that. On a more broad based basis the next point, we feel like we've realized on many of the assumptions and many results after the fact of acquisitions that have had in our understandable execution risk and additive as with measurables whether it be tangible book value, earn back or earnings accretion. And so with some realization, strong realization of what our assumptions have been we'll continue to take a really disciplined look at future opportunities most of which will be bank hike some of which to my prior point could be something slightly different where we understand both the upside and the risk in any of them.

But our outlook for where we would execute the best for the First Merchants’ service level, I know would be really competitive is in the Mid-West. And so we think the Southern two-thirds of Ohio and the entire State of Indiana we will do really well. And then there is selected other areas where it be some of the metropolitan areas of Kentucky, certain middle parts of Illinois, all would get our consideration. But Indiana and Ohio have just been good to us and we have a depth of talent for we got people that could take on more responsibility, we feel like we know many of the franchises that could be good fits and then if you were to extent your question on the profile. $1.5 billion in asset size and down would be preferable, I think on the last call we might have talked about what is too small at this point and entering new markets, brand new markets at $200 million would seem to be difficult.

I think the pipeline in this context really talks about how many live opportunities you get to engage in and it’s been about one a quarter, which would be different patent then measuring the number of institutions, where we have frequent contact. That number is pretty steady it is a dozen that might be 18 depending on what you call frequent contact. But a dozen or more institutions where we feel like franchise that they have built would be additive to ours. In terms of the actual pipeline where something can take place where our Board of Directors other than ours has decided to move forward with a transaction is about one a quarter, as I think back three or four quarters including 2016.

Independent Bancorp (IBTX)

I continue to have conversations with banks located in markets where we plan to grow. These conversations have picked up over the last few months as our stock price has improved. I believe that trend will continue to be the case and we remain optimistic about the possibilities on the M&A front.

Not necessarily Steve, we think Houston has done really well during this downturn. Our numbers as we’ve said have been fantastic in Houston in terms of really no issues at all and some of the best credit performance across our Company has been in Houston during this downturn. So, I’m not – we’re not opposed at all to partnering with the bank in Houston if we find the right partner there. There tend to be more opportunities right now properly in the Dallas Fort Worth area and in Austin and Houston behind that a little bit.

Size wise, it is consistent with where we’ve been. I think $500 million on the low end to $3 billion on the higher end in terms of an acquisition. I think bigger than $3 billion, you get up in the $4 billion to $8 billion is more of in our view a merger of equals type proposition. So in terms of just outright acquisitions, $500 million to $3 billion is a good spot for us. $1 billion to $2 billion which is kind of the middle of that would be very comfortable for us.

Bank of Marin (BMRC)

We also continue to apply disciplined approach to evaluating acquisition opportunities. It’s all about the right deal at the right price. Our strong capital base gives us options to offer combinations of cash and stock without raising additional capital. We are specifically focused on acquiring banks in the Bay area that have a strong deposit base in loan portfolio and also create value for our shareholders.

Yes, I don’t think it’s changed at all. We keep in conversation with many banks throughout the Bay area, but right now there is no real urgency not from our side, I’m talking about from others. So banks aren’t about their soul, so when a Board comes to a determination that they would like to do to sell then that’s when something happens, and we just keep in front of everyone and hope that something and the one’s that we’re interested in makes that decision.

But we don’t try and force things; we certainly are not ever hostile in that respect. So we just like to keep good communication with all our friendly competitors and if there is an opportunity we’ll be in front of them.

Ameris Bancorp (ABCB)

On the M&A front, we're still having serious conversations and taken serious looks at markets that we want to be stronger in. There's nothing in our strategy that has changed that would surprise you with respect to our desired metrics or the market areas that we are considering.

With the kind of organic growth that we have and what that of the other efficiencies we see coming, we can report outstanding results without an M&A deal. Notwithstanding that, we've done M&A for a long time and it's been a key integral part of our business. So I'm pretty confident that there's an opportunity that we could announce this year. So I would say like I generally do, don't be surprised if we announce something, but don't be surprised if we don't. We're still looking in the same markets that we've set last quarter. We would like to leverage our resources in the markets where we are having the most success with production for the last three or five years and that's Atlantis, Charleston, Jacksonville and Columbia.

Union Bancshares (UBSH)

Well, let me reiterate what I thought we had said before regarding M&A. I think our immediate, I will say, short-term to intermediate-term focus is market infill in Virginia, where we can maximize earnings per share growth and efficiencies. But as we contemplate crossing $10 billion, we may, at least we contemplate looking outside the state of Virginia in order to accomplish that.

Merchants Bancorp (MBVT)

Yes, we're very excited about Western Massachusetts and with this integration complete we think that offers us a lot of growth potential. We're going to see a pick-up in business in the core line in the commercial banking, but remember we're going to introduce government banking expertise there and wealth management businesses. So short term I see us focusing on Western Massachusetts just because there is a wealth of opportunity -- we're just delighted with the market and the team we have there and we want to build that team out and have some fun in that market. That would be the short term view for us.

Stonegate Bank (SGBC)

Well, I think it's going to be an in-market deal. Typically we'd like to stick to $300 million to $500 million. But for the right niche type deal, maybe we would go a little lower or little larger. The reality of it is, is Regent really wasn't big enough to really move the needle for us. So we're really having to do two deals to make one deal, so to speak. And that's just really a function of the market, there just really is not very many banks left in Florida north of $500 million. And that's one of the reasons why we think we are so valuable is because there is not -- there is a scarcity factor. So we may have to kind of do a little bit of the dance there and do two to get one, so to speak. But anywhere from $300 million to $500 million really is our sweet spot, at this point.

New mergers. We are actively looking and I'm still extremely confident that we're going to get something done before the end of the year, at least announced. We really have kind of fine-tuned how we're looking at acquisitions, we're really only looking in-market deals where we are currently. We think that real value Stonegate is adding market share in individual markets were in, such as, right now we're number one or will be number one in the closed region in the Broward County. We would like to be number one or number two in some of the other markets that we're in as well and we think that makes us a very attractive franchise.

We're also seeing that those economies of scale and just having that many much larger of a sales force in a particular county in a geographic area creates more opportunities for us and we're simply seeing that's where the growth is and that's where we're getting better margins. It just makes more sense for us. So while we'd love to be in Orlando and Jacksonville, I think the only way we'll enter those markets at this point is if we were to hire a de novo team and bring them over and then build that up to some extent down the road and then maybe capitalize on a merger down the road along those lines, but for right now, we're primarily focused in-market and we feel fairly confident we're going to get something done.

Landmark Bancorp (LARK)

I would say probably our earn back our targets would be typically three years or less on the earn-backs on that. And obviously our goal is if we can saturate it where it’s accretive, we try to do that in an either an immediate or an extremely near-term time frame.

From the standpoint of size, as we’ve been able to grow our franchise, our opportunity to grow by scale has obviously – has been increased. And so in a complementary market or a market where we have some overlap, we might look at a smaller deal to expand our geography and be in that several hundred million dollar footprint that you referenced.

The deals will be done and the profits will be pocketed. The only question is how much of it goes into your pockets. Becoming a member of Banking on Profits will help make sure you benefit from the ongoing, accelerating bank consolidation trend here in the United States.

You do have to act now to join. Because we deal with a lot of smaller stocks we have decided to limit the number of members to make it easier for all of our member to buy these little banks and share in the outsized profits. We are going to accept 38 new members and then close this product to addional members.

Those that join now will get 50% off the usual price as I want to get this done and closed so I can focus on picking stocks and not marketing. That’s 50% off for the life of your subscription not just the first year. You also get the monthly Community Bank Stock Investor every month free with your Banking on Profits membership.

The money will be made in community bank stocks as M&A picks up. The only question for you is are you going to join us on this profit rich adventure in community bank stocks? Click here to join Banking on Profits at 50% off for life and a free subscription to The Community Bank Stock Investor. Use coupon code 50OffBoP.

I look forward to a long and profitable relationship!

Tim

Posted to The Community Bank Investor… on Aug 04, 2016 — 12:08 PM
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