- Nice rally yesterday…on good volume…but mediocre breadth.
- Can the rally in crude oil help (and offset the employment data) again?
- In the future, 2021 earnings expectations will need to be compared to 2019, not 2020.
- The support/resistance levels for the SMH (a KEY leadership group) are well defined.
Nice rally yesterday…on good volume…but mediocre breadth.
It was great to see the stock market gain ground for the second time this week yesterday. It was also nice to see that the composite volume was higher than Wednesday’s volume. It was not quite as strong as it was during Tuesday’s decline…and the breadth was quite mediocre (just 2 to 1 positive on the S&P 500 and only 1.5 to 1 positive for the NYSE Composite index). Therefore, the “internals” have not improved much this week. However, you have to start somewhere…and to think that these “internals” turn around significantly after the recent scary decline would be too much to ask. In other words, even though the internals were not great yesterday, it’s not a problem yet…as long as they improve in a more meaningful fashion on any “rally days” over the next week or so.
Can the rally in crude oil help (and offset the employment data) again?
The rally came despite an horrendous number in the jobless claims data, so that was positive as well. However, as we highlighted yesterday morning, the expectations are SO low for this week’s employment data (including today’s NFP data)…that we did expect any outsized moves to these reports. We’ll see if that continues today, but the main reason for the bounce in the stock market was the rebound in the crude oil market.
The reports that the Russians and the Saudis were close to an agreement to cut production helped the black gold bounce more ...