The Treasury Market is at a Key Juncture...With Inflation Data Coming This Week.



We have been away from the markets for a few days, but not a lot has changed in the stock market. It continues to rise in a steady fashion…as the bulls still have a tight hold of the reins. We have seen a shift in sentiment, however. As we highlighted last week, we have gone from a situation where bullishness was very, very low at the beginning of October…to one where it is quite high once again.

For instance, the Investors Intelligence data shows bullishness has jumped from 40% to the mid 50’s over the past 4-5 weeks…and the DSI data shows that bullishness among futures traders has jumped all the way to 93%. (In fact, it has been 93% for each of the past two days on the Nasdaq.)…..We also have a plethora of people calling for a “melt-up” in the stock market into the end of the year. We highlighted three firms who used that term last week…and we heard two more talk about it over the weekend. (These two newer ones did not use the term “melt-up”…but they’re calling for 5,000 on the S&P 500 by year-end, so that’s still in the “melt-up” territory…after a YTD move of +25% already.)

Of course, just because a lot of people have become bullish (many of them VERY bullish) does not mean that the market cannot rally further for a while. There are certainly several reasons to think that it can. However, there is no question sentiment is now something that belongs on the bearish side of the bull/bear argument.

A lot of people will be focused on the impact that TSLA may have on the Nasdaq. It is 6.4% of the NDX Nasdaq 100 and it is down 4%-5% in pre-market trading. We’d also note that two other stocks ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Charts on FB, GOOGL, and MSFT


We are headed into the meat of earnings season this week and the tech stocks will get most of the focus. We still believe that it will be very important to keep a close eye on several other groups…especially the ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


We’d like to highlight something we haven’t mentioned in a while. In our weekly update each week, we frequently highlight issues that are in in direct conflict with one another. In other words, we sight things from both sides of ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: At Some Point, Stocks Will React To Rising Yields



We’re going to be quick and to the point this morning…….The S&P 500 Index reached a new all-time high yesterday, so the stock market rally off the early October lows continues to be a strong one. However, the internals have ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Healthcare sector poised to outperform.



The stock market just keeps on humming along. Both the S&P has rallied five days in a row…and has successfully moved above its key resistance level (its 50-DMA). In fact, for all practical purposes, the S&P 500 is now testing ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Don't Fight The Fed


Back in the middle of September, the S&P 500 broke below its 50-DMA in a material way for only the second time this year. The first time it happened (in March), it rebounded within two days and then continued to ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Friday’s employment report should not keep the Fed from tapering.

2) 3 major economic powers are getting less stimulative. That’s all you need to know.

3) Inflation fears will remain even if ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Otter was right!



Today could be one of those days where all investors wait around to see what happens next. Sometimes, there is a very important data point that everybody wants to see; or there is a speech that everybody wants to hear. ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment:

Tomorrow night, the Boston Red Sox and the NY Yankees will play in the wild card playoff game at Fenway Park in Boston. This is essentially a “play-in” game for the American League playoffs. Just over 40 years ago, we ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Three Key Changes In Trend That Concern Us Greatly



It was another rough day in the marketplace yesterday…and seems to be pointing to lower stock prices as we move into October (no matter what happens today). Probably the worst development from yesterday was that the Yankees won and the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: We're following the same script as this time last year.


We had a very mixed day in the stock market. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq declined, while the DJIA and the Russell 2000 rallied. We had a similar divergence among the groups, with the energy and financial sectors rallying strongly, ...

Read More
Comments

THE WEEKLY TOP 10

I am told that there was a problem with posting my “Weekly Top 10” last evening. Therefore, I thought I’d re-send it myself this morning. My apologies if this is a dupe. (BTW, this was written before the news that ...

Read More
Comments