Morning Comment: Beware of the "Rising Bearish Wedge"


The stock market saw a pull-back yesterday…which was not a big surprise given how much it had rallied over the previous five week…and how much it had shot-up on Wednesday. In other words, the market was getting extended on both a short-term and intermediate-term basis…and thus had become ripe for a pull-back (or at least a “breather”). The decline came on high volume and poor breadth, but neither of these readings were any more extreme than they were in the other direction during Wednesday’s rally. Therefore, we shouldn’t be overly concerned by the (expected) drop we experienced yesterday.

That said, the futures are trading considerably lower this morning, so if there is some significant downside follow-through as we move into early May, it will raise some concerns rather quickly. (BTW, the few overseas markets which are open are down by quite a bit as well. However, many/most of them are closed for the May Day holiday.)

The blame for much of this morning’s decline in the futures is focused on the earnings reports from last night…with particular emphasis on Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL). Given that AMZN is down more than 5% in pre-market trading and AAPL is down almost 3% as we write, this blame seems to be pointed in the correct direction. However, we also wonder if some of the data out of South Korea is having an impact as well.

As we have highlighted many times in the past, South Korea’s economy is an export-based one and thus their economy and their stock market are usually good indicators to keep an eye on. Their stock market was closed last night, but they did release their export data on the Thursday the 30th and it was quite poor. It fell 24.3% in April…which was its biggest decline since ...

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QQQ's....An


After the close yesterday we highlighted how Amazon had seen an “outside-down” day….and that this kind of development is frequently a signal of exhaustion of a rally…especially when it comes after a strong/sharp rally. AMZN did fall another 2.6% today…and ...

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Amazon (AMZN): Ripe for a pull-back???


The stock market had another very nice rally today, but we just want to point out that Amazon (AMZN) actually finished the day in negative territory. In fact, all five of the big cap names that have accounted for large ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) By far the most best item on the bullish side of the ledger? “Don’t fight the Fed.”

1a) If things turn down again, don’t blame the Fed.

2) So far, the stock ...

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Morning Comment: Suddenly Range-Bound


  • After retracing 50% of its decline, the S&P 500 index has suddenly become range-bound
  • Can Chevron (CVX) finally see a sustainable rally?
  • What does Invesco’s (IVZ) dividend cut tell us about the future?


After retracing 50% of its decline, the ...

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Morning Comment: More Holes in the Dike (Think Italy)


The S&P 500 has fallen almost 5% over the past two days and the DJIA has lost over 1,200 points, but after a 28% rally in less than a month, these are not the kind of numbers that will scare ...

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Morning Comment: So Many Holes in the Dike


We all know that the big story in the market place yesterday was the crash in WTI crude oil for May delivery. There is no question that there were some key technical issues that were involved, but the move into ...

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Morning Comment: Narrow Rallies Rarely Last Very Long.


Some very negative news on the economic front got most of the blame for yesterday’s 2% decline in the stock market yesterday, but given that the market had rallied 27% over just three weeks, it was getting ripe for a ...

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Morning Comment: Don't Chase the Rally at These Levels.


The stock market was able to regain about 2/3 of its early morning losses by the close yesterday…as the technology sector was able to rebound nicely during the day (after it declined in the morning on several ratings downgrades on ...

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Morning Comment: The Retailers & Housing Stocks Should Be The Important Indicators


After a very disappointing day on Tuesday (when the market dropped over 3% from its intraday highs), the stock market bounced-back quite nicely yesterday. The S&P 500 rallied 3.4% and finished on its highs of the day for the second ...

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Morning Comment: The morphing of the coronavirus.


By the time we reached midday yesterday…and the stock market was up 10% from last Friday’s close…it seemed like the bullish talk within the market place had begun to grow. In other words, the number of people who (like us) ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) We expect a much more gradual rebound after this recession than the consensus believes.

2) That said, the initial bounce in stocks will be strong…even if it becomes more gradual later.

3) ...

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