THE WEEKLY TOP 10....The risk/reward equation has changed significantly



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Is all of the good news already priced into the mega-cap techs over the near-term?

2) Some of the obvious froth in the market place is becoming ridiculous.

3) High yield is trying to breakout. If it can, it will be bullish for stocks as well!

4) The housing stocks are a bit overbought, but still look great longer-term.

4a) Expect the migration out of the cities and into the suburbs to continue in 2021.

5) U.S. Treasuries yields fall to new historic lows.......Hello????????

6) Gold is overbought...and so is Bitcoin...but we’re bulls longer-term on both.

7) Starting to see a few cracks in several European markets.

8) The dollar is VERY oversold, but any bounce might be short-lived.

9) Once Biden picks his VP candidate, the campaign can FINALLY begin.

10) Summary of our current stance.


Short Version:

1) The mega-cap techs stocks have reported great earnings. However, they have also seen GREAT rallies...that have taken them to overbought levels...and overvalued levels. So as great as these companies are, their stocks have still become vulnerable to significant declines right now...even if they’re headed a lot further longer-term. Tech stocks ALWAYS see a lot of BIG swings...in BOTH directions...that’s what they do!

2) The froth that has shown up in the stock market recently has become ridiculous. No, it’s not as extreme as it was in 1999/2000, but it IS still there. Anybody who thinks the recent action in stocks like Kodak and Hertz are not obvious signs of froth are idiots.....”Froth” is not always followed immediately by corrections, but we’d also note that we’re not just seeing it is down-and-out companies. There are signs of it in stocks like TSLA and TSM as well.

3) On the positive side of the ...

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Morning Comment: A Second Warning Shot Across the Bow


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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


I will be on vacation next week, so there will be not “Morning Comments” next week and no “Weekly Top 10” next weekend. Thank you very much.


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Liquidity has still been the ...

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Morning Comment: Small-caps Trying to Breakout


Well our call last week that said investors should avoid Chinese stocks on a near-term basis because they had become EXTREMELY overbought has worked out quite well. The Shanghai Index fell 4.5% last night...and has declined 6.7% since we made ...

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Morning Comment: Mega Tech Beginning a Correction?


We saw a decent sized reversal yesterday...as the mega-tech stocks got clobbered after making new highs early in the day. The decline got also go exacerbated late in the day when California announced that that it was basically shutting down ...

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Morning Comment: Amazon is getting VERY overbought

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Morning Comment: Tesla in a Bubble


---Volatility within a sideways range.

---Tesla is in a bubble

---Has the Fed changed the goals of their stimulus injections?



Volatility within a sideways range.

The volume in the stock market has been quite low so far this week...with the ...

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Morning Comment: Happy Birthday America


There’s no question that today is going to be a very “thin” day in the markets, so anything can happen as we move through the day...but there’s no question that the better-than-expected employment report has the stock market rallying strongly ...

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Morning Comment: UPS testing key resistance.

The stock market’s bounce yesterday was certainly a good one...as the S&P 500 retraced 2/3 of its losses from Friday. The move came on very good breadth, but very low volume. The breadth was 8 to 1 positive on the ...

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Morning Comment: Is the bank rally failing once again?


The stock market is beginning to look eerily like it did in early February this year...just before the market rolled-over. Investors are ignoring a big pick-up in the coronavirus cases...and the rally is a very narrow one once again. Thankfully, ...

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Morning Comment: Talking Tough on China Just Became a lot Harder To Do


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