Morning Comment: "Sell the news" on crude oil?


We had all the makings of a “turnaround Tuesday” in the stock market yesterday. We had a big decline on Monday…that was followed by more downside movement Tuesday morning. Then, we got a very strong/sharp rally midday…and all of these moves (including the big drop on Monday) came a VERY strong volume. This is exactly the kind of action we tend to see when the stock market is going to see the kind of bounce that will last for several days (if not several weeks). No, the drop on Monday and early Tuesday morning did not have the kind of extreme negative breadth that would signal the kind of washout move that would indicate that THE ULTIMATE bottom for this move has been put in place…but it still had all the makings of a bounce that would last for a while.

However, the bounce ran out of steam. (From what we can gather, the chatter around the Street says that the strong midday rally was fueled by reports that Ukraine President Zelenskiy decided to give-in on the issue of NATO…and say that Ukraine would not try to that organization. However, reports that the Biden Administration put the kibosh on that strategy by Zelenskiy…turned the market back down again.)…..Whatever the reason, there is no question that we saw a strong rally…and this the rally did fail…leaving the broad averages very near their lows of the day by the close.

THAT SAID, the futures are pointing to a much higher opening this morning. So, now that the above geopolitical rumors are off the table, maybe the market CAN rally in a more meaningful way …and the “turnaround Tuesday” will merely be delayed by a few hours……One development that could help this scenario come true is the drop in crude oil. WTI…which traded ...

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Morning Comment: Semiconductors testing key support


As we watched the Sunday morning political shows yesterday, we could not help but notice how so many geopolitical and military experts focused on the airspace over Ukraine. Sure, they talked about the “no fly zone” issue, but what struck ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) To a certain degree, this is February 2020 all over again.

2) Sentiment is getting VERY bearish, that could be bullish over the short-term.

3) The Fed is stuck between a rock ...

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Morning Comment: The Fed is between a rock & a hard place.....Crude oil is getting overbought



Well, the stock market finally woke up to what the bond market (and energy markets) were telling it recently. As we highlighted yesterday, these other markets were screaming that the situation in eastern Europe is not a good one…as ...

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Morning Comment: The big disconnect...which market is right?


It was another wild ride in the stock market yesterday…as the S&P 500 saw a total of FIVE swings on 1% or more (and three others of 0.5%). Five swings of more than 1% would usually qualify as a pretty ...

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Morning Comment: Norman Bates's Mother


The State of the Union Speech will be delivered tomorrow night…but the President will be able avoid talking about the state of our union (for the most part) given what is going on in Ukraine. Therefore, to a certain degree, ...

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Morning Comment: The Russia/Ukraine issue is not going away any time soon



Well, there is no question that the volatility that we’ve seen all year so far this year, has not gone away. We had another roller coaster ride yesterday…with a nice mid-afternoon rally…but that rally failed in the last hour of ...

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Morning Comment: S&P 500 at a key technical juncture.....NVDA earnings tonight.


The news that Russia had pulled some of its troops from the Ukraine border helped the stock market rally nicely yesterday. The vast majority of the advance for the S&P 500 came in the first fifteen minutes of trading…and its ...

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Morning Comment: Have things gotten better...or worse...since late January?


The futures have bounced off their overnight lows on news that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov supports continue diplomatic efforts with the West on the issue of Ukraine. The futures on the S&P 500…which had traded lower by as much as ...

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Morning Comment: More upside for banks?.....Lindsey Jacobellis and persistence


As much as the market rallied nicely yesterday…and as much as it seems like the market has been rallying in almost a straight line for the last 2-3 weeks, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have actually been stuck in ...

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Morning Comment: PFE breaking support.....FB getting quite oversold.


For the second day in a row, the stock market sold-off late in the day. On Friday, the market had rallied nicely before the drop, so it still closed nicely higher on the day. However, yesterday, the drop took the ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The indexes rallied last week, but a lot of money was lost. That’s not good for the stock market.

2) The most important development from last week was the ECB’s surprising change ...

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