Morning Comment:


When I was in high school, the only sport that had a very early “pre-season” was football. (Some people called it “double sessions”...we called it “hell week.”) The other sports started before school got going as well, but not as early as football. However, in more recent decades, all of the fall sports start early (both men’s and women’s). Therefore, a lot more people now know what I’m talking about when I highlight “the smell” that exists early in the mornings of late in August.

Back in the day, when we got up early on those late August mornings, it was usually quite cool. (Somehow, it always got ridiculously hot during the day...especially during wind sprints...but it was always cool in the morning.) The grass was always still wet when we headed out for practice...and there was a certain “smell” in the air that was unique to this time of year. Having smelled that smell in high school...and four years of college, it’s something that has stayed with me ever since.

I still notice that smell on late-August mornings every year...and it brings back great memories (especially since I don’t have to run wind sprints any more). It’s neat to know that so many more people know what I’m talking about when I mention “the smell”...since football players are not the only ones who experience it any more. Of course, a lot fewer young athletes are experiencing it this year, but it will return next year...and for years to come. (Ahhh, the simple things in life really are fabulous!)

Of course, even though the week before Labor Day weekend is usually a very active one for young athletes, it’s usually a VERY quiet week for the markets. This year should be no different. Today is the last day of the ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) We were wrong about August, but that does not deter our caution about September.

2) Chairman Powell’s comments last week were expected. Kaplan’s comments were quite telling.

3) An extended narrow rally ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10

THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t party likes it’s 1999.

2 & 2a) Narrow rallies are not healthy rallies (so it IS something to worry about).

3) The dollar has much further to bounce.

4) Higher dollar ...

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Morning Comment: Bearish on Commodities, NEAR-TERM


It was a very uneventful day in the stock market yesterday...until late in the afternoon when the market gave back its earlier gains. The catalyst seemed to be comments from the “Fed Minutes” from their last meeting...which said the healthcare ...

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Morning Comment: Pounding the table about a near-term dollar bounce

Balloons, confetti, noisemakers, etc......No, we’re not talking about the Democratic National Convention. We talking about how the S&P 500 finally closed above the February closing highs yesterday...after bumping up against that level for over a week! Of course, there is ...

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Morning Comment: The Dollar Stands at a Key Technical Juncture

There is no question that the stock market continues to act will, but there is also no question that investor enthusiasm is waning as we approach the an all-time high in the S&P 500 Index. This lack of enthusiasm could ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



We think it’s important to remind people from time to time that we always try to highlight issues from both sides of the bull/bear ledger each weekend. Therefore, some of our comments sometimes conflict with one another. However, we always ...

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Morning Comment: Congress won't care until the stock market starts to care.



The S&P did not quite close at an all time high yesterday, but it came about as close as it could without reaching that level on a closing basis...as it missed by only 5 points. In other words, the fact ...

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Morning Comment: Sharp short-term are not always fundamentally based.


We think that the action in the gold market yesterday...and the reasons being given for that move this morning...is a classic example of how Wall Street (stupidly) tries to give a fundamental reason for EVERY SINGLE move in the markets...even ...

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Morning Comment: Gold has become ripe for a short-term pull-back.


It was another low-volume/uneventful day yesterday...until about 2:30, when the stock market rallied strongly over the last hour and half. When you combine the 12 point gain in the S&P 500 this morning with the 20 point gain the futures ...

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Morning Comment: Narrow market...does it matter?


We had another nice day in the stock market yesterday as the tech sector continued to lead the way higher. It does not seem to matter that the rally is a very narrow one, but history tells us that it ...

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Morning Comment: Biggest Near-Term Risk? China.

There is no question that there are a lot of developments from around the globe that are fighting for the attention of the public (and investors) in the mainstream media. Whether it be the continuing Covid-19 crisis, the debate over ...

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