Morning Comment: Updating my view not the semis, the consumer staples and the Fed.


  • The consumer staples stocks have continued to perform in-line with the S&P 500 since early March. Investors should consider adding exposure to this sector…as it should provide upside (market-sized) returns if the broad market continues to rally going forward….AND provide downside protection if the market sees a correction.
  • A week ago, we said the chip stocks were at a key technical juncture. Right now, there are signs the situation is going to resolve itself to the downside…but we’ll have to see more downside follow-through to confirm a change in trend.
  • Richmond Fed President Barken made some comments yesterday that emboldened our view that the Fed is going to wait until long-term yields are higher…and THEN start “talking about” tapering back on QE (so that they can say that it’s already priced-in). Thus, do not wait for a Fed “tapering” announcement before you start expecting higher-long-term rates….especially since Dallas Fed President laid more groundwork for a tapering move over last weekend.


It was a bit of a mixed day in the stock market yesterday….as the DJIA, S&P 500 and Russell 2000 all rallied, but the tech laden Nasdaq fell by about 0.5%. We’d also note that the S&P gave back more than half of its early morning gains by the close…and finished the day near the lows. All of this took place on low volume and breadth that was nothing special, so it was not the most compelling day we’ve ever seen for the broad stock market.

We did, however, see some noticeable moves in several different groups. The energy stocks saw a strong rally…and the industrials and material stocks were able to move nicely higher as well. It was interesting to note that the consumer staples also had a good day…as the XLP consumer staples ETF experienced some further gains. ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Charts on Bunds, European Banks, FB, AAPL, & STX


Well, there’s no question that there will be a lot of news today…so it will be interesting to see if any of it (or if all of it combined) will create a measurable move in the stock market. We get ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Bitcoin...vulnerable to a drop to $41K?


The capital gains tax proposal that was put out by the Biden Administration knocked-down the stock market yesterday afternoon, but it was hardly a disaster. The decline came on breadth that was benign….and even though volume did increase, it was ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Small-cap problems...Lumber is ripe for a decline (is that a problem for HD & LOW?)



The stock market took it on the chin again yesterday, but this week’s decline is still only a blip on the radar screen of the long-term picture of the stock market. Yes, volume did pick-up, so that’s a concern….but given ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Tech Stocks at a KEY Technical Juncture


We’re heading into earnings season for the tech stocks…and it’s coming at a time that the sector stands at a key technical juncture. IBM reported better-than-expected numbers last night and it is trading 3% higher in the pre-market. However, IBM ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Today is (almost) all about COIN and Bitcoin



We had yet another pretty uneventful day yesterday. Yes, the S&P rallied 13 points and the Nasdaq rose more than 1%, but they both had negative breadth and volume remained very low. (The composite volume was higher than Friday and ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Energy ETF's Testing Key Support...Bitcoin Breaking Out.



We had yet another boring day in the stock market yesterday…as volume continues to come-in at/near the lows of the year….and the intraday range for the S&P 500 has been less than one-half of one percent on four of the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Financial stocks still look great on a longer-term basis


You can’t get a lot more boring than we got yesterday in the broad stock market….as the major averages finished the day pretty much unchanged on the lowest volume day of the year so far. This action (or non-action) is ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: ARKK....AMZN....Mary Jane Bush


  • Some profit taking in front of tomorrow's employment report?
  • $110 is the KEY support level for ARKK
  • Ditto for the $2,950 level on AMZN.
  • A tribute to Mary Jane Bush, Wall Street pioneer.


The stock futures are trading higher this ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Small-caps, Biotechs testing KEY support levels


If history is any guide the market tends to rally at the end of the quarter…as institutional investors mark-up their favorite picks. Thus, with only two days left in the first quarter, maybe it should be no surprise that the ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Several Overseas Markets Showing Some Cracks.


The Treasury market rallied very nicely yesterday, and this obviously led to a rather material drop in long-term interest rates. However, instead of that causing a nice bounce in the stock market, stocks got hit quite hard. In our minds, ...

Read More
Comments

Morning Comment: Banks Ripe for a Short-term Pull-back.

In our weekend piece this past weekend, we highlighted that although we expect long-term rates to head higher over time, we also think that they are ripe for a pull-back over the short-term. We showed how the chart on the ...

Read More
Comments