Morning Comment: Yields testing resistance....NFLX testing support.


The market finished the day with a decent gain yesterday, but it closed well off its early afternoon highs. The gain also came on lower volume and mediocre breadth (2.4 to 1 positive on the S&P 500)...so the action so far this week is a bit concerning......The action last week was quite impressive, so the market still looks fine right now, but we’ll continue to monitor the “internals” of the market to see if it’s going to deteriorate in a more meaningful manner in the days ahead......It seems like the market has become a hostage to the silliness that is going on in Washington DC...as the leadership on both sides is trying to convince voters that they DO care about their struggles in front of the election...when neither side seems to really want to get a deal done.

The bond market saw a material move yesterday...as yields moved higher and the U.S. 10-year yield has risen to 0.81% this morning. Of course, if you look at a multi-decade chart, those yields are still ridiculously low. However, there is also no question that the 10yr yield has been building a nice “base” over the past 8 months. Therefore, if (repeat, IF) we see a further rise in long-term rates...that becomes a bit more steady rise...it’s going to signal an important change in trend for interest rates that goes back to at least late 2018.

The level we’re watching is the 0.90% level. A significant move above that level would take the 10-year yield above its trend-line from late 2018 (when the Fed did their famous “pivot”)...and it would also give it its first “higher-high” in almost two years! In other words, even though a 10-yr yield at or very near 1% on the U.S. 10-year note would be extremely low on ...

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Morning Comment: LA Dodgers!


For the first time in the history of Major League Baseball, a team has come back from a 0-3 deficit to win their League’s Championship and move-on to the World Series. That’s right, the LA Dodgers were able to come ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Quick Note: I will be participating in the next "MoneyShow Virtual Expo" that runs from October 27-29. I will be presenting early in the afternoon on October 28th and I hope you will join me. They have a fabulous line-up ...

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Morning Comment: Bullish "internals" this week.


We got more evidence yesterday that this week’s “breather” in the stock market will be followed by a further rally into the election. We’ll still have to watch the action in the market for a couple of more trading days, ...

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Morning Comment: Keep Watching the Dollar


We had been expecting a pull-back in the stock market after its nice two-week rally, so the decline in the market yesterday was not a surprise. In fact, it can be seen as normal and healthy. Of course, if the ...

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Morning Comment: NY Sports Teams Have Become Irrelevant (and that's not good).


It should be a quiet day today...as the bond market is closed for Columbus Day (or whatever the call it now)...and a lot of market participants (both bond & stock market players) have taken a three-day weekend. To be honest, ...

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Morning Comment: Next Week Will Be Very Important For The Stock Market


Our apologies for not publishing yesterday, we had a power outage and it took quite a long time to get back up and running yesterday. Anyway, our feeling is that the only thing that will really be remembered from the ...

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Morning Comment: Bank stocks and the yield curve


The stock market rallied nicely yesterday...and although talk of a fiscal deal out of Washington and news that President Trump was leaving the hospital got a lot of the credit for the advance...we believe the falling odds of a contested ...

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Morning Comment: A bullish development for banks???


We find it interesting that the stock futures are trading meaningfully higher this morning given that we cannot find any new-news on a fiscal deal. The S&P futures are basically signaling that they’ll claw back everything the S&P lost on ...

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Morning Comment: October...deja vu all-over again...or not???


  • October in NE: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, what?
  • September corrections usually bottom in October.
  • Chip stocks are a great leading indicator...and they're rising.
  • But so are the truckers...and they're falling.


October in New England: Colors, Red Sox, Tom Brady...Wait, ...

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Morning Comment: Follow the Dollar


  • Things are only going to get uglier in the Presidential campaign.
  • Trump is actually winning the “expectations game” for the debate.
  • Pelosi’s comments & the dollar are helping the market bounce this morning.
  • The dollar is overbought near-term, but still ...
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Morning Comment: Watch the chip stocks for guidance


Wow, another wild day in the stock market yesterday. A 1.5% rally off the initial lows was followed by a 1% decline into late-morning. That, in turn, was followed by a 1.7% rally into mid-afternoon...which was then followed by another ...

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