Morning Comment: Will the consumer story strong? We should get some important clues this week.


It was just a short-covering rally?…..That is what the skeptics ask whenever the stock market rallies on one day during an extended correction or bear market. The problem is that pretty much all rallies that take place during a correction/bear market START with short covering rallies. The ones that fail quickly…the ones that last several weeks…AND the one that signals the end of the entire decline all start with short-covering. Therefore, it is impossible to know which one of those three it is until at least some time has passed. In other words, trying to decipher which one the bounce that began late Thursday is impossible at this point in time.

Of course, that won’t keep us from trying to guess which one it is…but we readily admit that we won’t know for at least a few days…..We believe that it is likely the middle of the three choices just highlighted. We think it’s probably the beginning of a short-term rally. The reason we think this is that will last for more than 1 or 2 days is that it is quite evident to us that we have seen a serious bout of “forced selling” (that took place last week that derived from the crypto market). Markets tend to see bounces that last for while after a case of “forced selling” subsides, so we think we could/should see some upside follow-through this week.

However, not everything points to a further rally. For one thing, Friday’s rally came on much lower volume that we saw when the market was falling last week. Also, we got some very negative economic news out of China last night…which lowered the outlook for global growth. (Industrial production was -2.9% vs the consensus estimate of +0.5%...Retail sales were -11.1% vs. a -6.6% estimate…and the unemployment rate ...

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Morning Comment: Is the "forced selling" in the crypto market over for now?


By mid-afternoon yesterday, the S&P 500 Index had fallen to 3,858…within spitting distance of the 3,800 level that so many people (including ourselves) have been saying was a good target for a short-term bottom for the stock market. (Some people ...

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Morning Comment: Is a



During the first years of our career, nobody would ever have asked, “How much will the markets have to go down before the Fed will shift their monetary policy?” Back then, the thought that the Fed would think about anything ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Stagflation IS here…and it IS going to get worse.

2) On a technical basis, we sit at a CRITICAL juncture for the S&P 500 and NDX 100.

3) A “re-rating/re-valuation” process in ...

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Morning Comment: How long will a short-term bounce last?


The stock market stands at a precarious position and thus any further downside movement...either now, or after a short-term bounce...will be very negative for the stock market on a technical basis.

The Nasdaq fell to its lowest levels of the ...

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Morning Comment: A break market in bonds will not be bullish for stocks.


There are some pundits who believe that a major sell-off in bonds will be bullish for stocks because the sellers of those bonds will use the proceeds to buy stocks. What these pundits don't understand is that the seller of ...

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Morning Comment: Long-term bonds are quite ripe for a bounce (and thus fall in yields).


  • We saw some more technical damage yesterday, so the stock market needs to bounce quickly and sharply to keep its recent upside momentum.
  • The Treasury bond market is ripe for a bounce (fall in yields). This could take place EVEN ...
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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) The divergence between the stock and bond markets go way beyond just the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-yr note.

2) Saying that the stock market has “priced-in” what is going on ...

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Morning Comment: Tighter financial conditions are bearish for stocks.....Justin Rose.


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It was another wild day for the stock market…as the NDX Nasdaq 100 index saw ...

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Morning Comment: "If Stocks Don't Fall, the Fed Needs to Force Them."


The second most powerful person at the Fed (by far) is usually the NY Fed President. Well, one of the former NY Fed President's is telling us that the Fed actually WANTS the stock market to decline going forward....thus investors ...

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Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance


Morning Comment: The XLK tech ETF is testing key resistance.


  • The “internals” were mediocre yesterday, but the rally still pushed the S&P and Nasdaq closer to their key resistance levels.
  • If the XLK tech ETF can break its key resistance ...
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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Don’t watch the 3-month T-bill when looking at the yield curve….Also, you don’t need a recession to knock down an artificially inflated stock market.

2) We got some important proof last week ...

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