Morning Comment: Crucial Day For The Stock Market....Oil Ripe For A Breather

The stock market had another rough day yesterday…and all of the major averages got hit especially hard late in the day. This caused them all to close on their lows of the day. That said, the “internals” were not as bad yesterday…as they were on Tuesday. The composite volume was actually lower (which is a surprise…because the first day of a trading week tends to have the lowest volume of the week). Also, the breadth was not anywhere near as bad. It was 3 to 1 negative for the S&P 500 (vs almost 8 to 1 negative on Tuesday)…it was just over 2 to 1 negative on the Nasdaq Composite (vs. more than 5 to 1 negative on Tuesday)…it was less than 2 to 1 negative for the NDX Nasdaq 100 Index (vs. more than 13 to 1 negative on Tuesday)…and it was 4 to 1 negative for the Russell 2000 (vs almost 13 to 1 negative on Tuesday).

In other words, even though yesterday was not a good day for the stock market whatsoever…and even though it closed on its lows for the day…it actually showed some signs that the selling pressure is fading a little bit…at least over the very-near-term.

The late day sell-off did take the S&P 500 below its 100-DMA…and the Nasdaq Composite further below its 200-DMA. However, the NDX Nasdaq 100 is still slightly above its own 200-DMA…and we need to point out that the S&P 500 has only broken very slightly below that 100-DMA. As we have mentioned many times in recent weeks, the 100-DMA has been VERY strong support for the S&P for over a year, BUT we have also highlighted that it has broken slightly below that line a couple of times…only to regain the line very quickly. Therefore, we have said ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Fed tightening might not hurt the economy much, but it WILL hurt the stock market (further).

2) The Fed cares MUCH more about the credit markets than the stock market.

3) Trying ...

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Morning Comment: Just How Strong Is The Consumer?


It was another rough day for the stock market yesterday…as the S&P 500 fell 1.4% and the Nasdaq declined 2.5%. The futures are looking lower again this morning, so it looks like our concerns from earlier this week…that the bounce ...

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Morning Comment: Emerging Markets Testing Key Resistance



The stock market saw some more upside follow-through yesterday from the big bounce off the lows it saw on Monday, but unlike Monday and Tuesday, the market did not close on its highs for the day. Don’t get us wrong, ...

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The FAANG Stocks Are Close to a Key Support Level



Sometimes people say that a move in the marketplace is a “delayed reaction” to some other development. This reasoning can frequently be used when people have no idea why some asset or another experienced a big move on a given ...

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Morning Comment: Will the action in January really tell us anything?


There are many short-term “seasonal” plays that usually workout quite well for the stock market. For instance, the stock market usually does well around long weekends (especially Memorial Day weekend). It also usually rallies in the days surrounding Thanksgiving and ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10



THE WEEKLY TOP 10


Table of Contents:

1) Lower asset prices do not mean the Fed has made a “policy mistake.”

1a) The last time the Fed tightened; they didn’t worry about the stock market.

2) Massive stimulus = more ...

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Morning Comment: Will Cryptos Bounce Once The Year-end Selling Ends?


There are two days left in 2021 and this is going to be a year where no Boston professional sports team won a championship. In fact, none of them even made the finals. There is no question that this is ...

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Morning Comment: Don't Blame The Fed



Well, we finally did get a relatively uneventful day in the stock market yesterday. The DJIA closed in positive territory…while the S&P 500 closed with a very mild loss (and the Nasdaq & Russell 2000 finishing the day with a ...

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Morning Comment: Omicron, Manchin ?, Turkey, and Micron (yes, Micron).

We have been saying recently that we believe the biggest headwind facing the markets right now is the significant change in policy by the Fed. However, there is little question that the larger drop in the futures this morning is ...

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Morning Comment: Is Tesla the canary in the coal mine?

A lot of focus this morning will be on the inflation data…when the CPI number (Consumer Price Index) comes out at 8:30. There are some people who believe we’ll get some relief this month…for reasons like the fact that oil ...

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THE WEEKLY TOP 10


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