With summer vacation season winding down and the Fed's symposium getting underway in Jackson Hole, it is safe to say that those traders at their desks this week are waiting to hear what Janet Yellen has to say on Friday before making any major commitments here.
To review, Ms. Yellen is scheduled to speak to the gang of central bankers gathered in the mountains of Wyoming at the end of the week. And while we can't be sure that the Fed Chair is going to discuss her views on when the FOMC will take action again on interest rates, the annual meeting in Jackson Hole has been the spot where changes in monetary policy have been introduced. As such, traders of all shapes and sizes will be hanging on every word Ms. Yellen utters on Friday.
At issue is the potential for the Fed to raise rates in September and/or December. Given that the Fed does not like to make changes to monetary policy in front of a national election, the thinking is that Ms. Yellen has to either take action next month or wait until December to make the first move in 2016.
To be sure, there have been ample opportunities to raise rates so far this year. But each and every time there has been a reason not to. The most recent excuse was the BREXIT vote. With the bears telling anyone who would listen that the UK's decision to leave the EU would undoubtedly trigger the next global crisis, Yellen & Co. decided to stay on the sidelines and err on the side of caution.
However, the FOMC has made it very clear that it remains "data dependent" in terms of when it will take action. And the bottom line is the data would seem to suggest ...