420 Investor Weekly Review 12/16/22


Illinois released its medical cannabis sales for November. The state saw total cannabis sales fall 0.8% from October but rise 4.2% from a year ago to $158.7 million. Michigan released its November cannabis sales, with the total gaining 33.2% from a year ago while falling 2.9% from October, with one more day, to $203.4 million.

I distributed this written material to 420 Investor subscribers during the week:

I published an article on Planet 13 Holdings at Seeking Alpha:

Here are some of this week's highlights for Focus List names:

  • CURLF expanded its "The Farmer's Select" program in California.
  • GTBIF named a new CFO, the Chief Accounting Officer since 2020,with the former CFO moving to President.
  • PLNHF launched an exclusive collaboration with Lil Wayne's GKUA Ultra Premium.
  • TCNNF announced a partnership with a California companies Connected Cannabis and AlienLabs in Florida.
  • TLRY launched a new limited edition of RIFF premium flower with two collections of craft flower.

Please check the Focus List, (which has technical, fundamental and valuation ratings as well as a market-cap table). To help track market caps, we maintain tables for the Canadian LPs and the American cannabis operators and ancillary companies.

There were comments in over 90 discussions in the Forum. Don't miss out on this most informative part of 420 Investor! Not familiar with the the Forum? This video will help! This is a great way to track your favorite tickers, even those not on the Focus List, and to get your questions answered quickly.

Market Performance

The Global Cannabis Stock Index posted a new all-time closing low of 10.81 on Thursday and a new intraday low of 10.78 on Friday. It was slammed lower this week to 11.02, ending down 9.5% for the week. This was a lot worse than the 2.1% loss in the S&P 500, which is down 5.6% in December. The cannabis index has dropped 19.4% in December, and it has declined 2.1% thus far in Q4. This is worse than the +7.4% return in the S&P 500.

The index, which lost 26% in 2021 following a 5.2% gain in 2020, is down 66.5% in 2022. It currently includes 28 stocks and ended 2021 at 32.85. In September it was down 25.9%, and it was down 23.7% in Q3:

For perspective, the index, which began 2013 at 100, bottomed in August 2013 at 70 after a prior peak of 220 in February 2013 and peaked in 2014 at 1010. The long post-2014 decline ended in February 2016, with the market soaring at the beginning of 2018 to levels not seen since 2014. We took out the 2016 lows by a wide margin in early 2020 and then soared into 2021 before reversing. We made a new all-time low at the end of September that was taken out this week:

Model Portfolios

Flying High, down 16.1% in Q3, ended the week valued at $130,556, down 17.3% during the week. It has lost 11.2% in Q4 thus far. This model portfolio was launched on 9/23/13 with $10,000 (paper), and it ended 2013 at $18,225, 2014 at $15,702, 2015 at $9608, 2016 at $49,568, 2017 at $112,891, 2018 at $161,346, 2019 at $165,249, 2020 at $252,409 and 2021 at $294,249. The year-to-date gain was 16.6% in 2021, and the model portfolio is down 55.6% in 2022. The model portfolio has increased 1206% since inception. Flying High has 6 positions and 0.3% cash. During the week, I sold a Canadian LP and added to two MSOs. I then reversed the trade, trimming one of the MSOs and adding the Canadian LP. I also added to another MSO and to an ancillary position.

420 Opportunity, which fell 15.2% in Q3, ended the week at $32,614, down 14.7%, which was worse than the Global Cannabis Stock Index. It is down 9.2% in Q4. This model portfolio, which was funded with $50,000 (paper) on 4/8/14 and ended 2014 at $17,105, 2015 at $11,418, 2016 at $44,915, 2017 at $91,407, 2018 at $94,616, 2019 at $77,715, 2020 at $105,373 and 2021 at $90,823, has a goal of being fully invested and outperforming the market as measured by the 420 Investor Cannabis Stock Index, which down 9.5% during the week. In 2021, the model lost 13.8%, while the index decreased 26.0%, and it is down 64.1% in 2022 compared to the index loss of 66.5%. The model portfolio has lost 34.8% since inception, while the overall market has declined by 98% during that time-frame. The model maintains 13 holdings and 0.1% cash. The three largest holdings include HYFM (13.0%), VRNOF (11.2%) and AAWH (11.2%). During the week, I trimmed MAPS on Monday to add to VRNOF and trimmed GNLN to add to HYFM. On Wednesday, I reduced TRSSF to add to VRNOF. On Thursday, I reduced OGI to add to AYRWF and VRNOF.

420 Quality, which was funded with $50,000 (paper) on 3/1/17 and was down 14.8% in Q3, ended the week at $45,316, down 14.5% this week. It has declined 9.9% in Q4, which is behind the index. In 2021, the model portfolio lost 21.8% compared to the 26.0% loss in the index. In 2022, it has returned -64.1% compared to the index return of -66.59%. It ended 2017 at $109,480, 2018 at $119,053, 2019 at $113,123, 2020 at $161,504 and 2021 at $126,323. To learn more about the model portfolio, which is longer-term focused, please read the description I posted before launch. Since inception, the model has lost 9.4%, while the index has lost 86.4%. The model has 13 holdings and 0.1% cash. The largest positions include HFYM (12.6%), VRNOF (11.3%) and AYRWF (10.5%). During the week, I trimmed MAPS on Monday to add to VRNOF and trimmed GNLN to add to HYFM. On Wednesday, I reduced TRSSF to add to VRNOF. On Thursday, I reduced OGI to add to AYRWF and VRNOF.


As a reminder, 420i posts a calendar for your convenience, as does New Cannabis Ventures. NCV also posts a separate calendar for conference calls.

  • Tuesday: StatsCan releases retail sales of cannabis during October

Companies with fiscal years ending in September (August for Canadian Venture stocks that don't file with the SEC) must report their annual financials in December. Companies with years ending in January, April or July must file their quarterly reports by mid-December (or by late December for Canadian-listed stocks that aren't on the TSX or NEO or filing with the SEC).

Posted to Your Cannabis Analyst on Dec 16, 2022 — 4:12 PM
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