Trading lessons from the last 48 hours of nonsense

Here's how I came up with the 51 and 67.5 levels of late-day resistance today:

ExtremesClosesRange of Resistance
50% move6965.75
61.8% move85.581.25
50 % Retracement from Intraday Low2050.52047.252047.25 - 2051
50 % Retracement from Closing Low20512047.75
61.8% Retracement from Intraday Low20672062.752062.75 - 2067.5
61.8% Retracement from Closing Low2067.52063.25

If 2067.25 if broken on the upside, there's a strong likelihood that ES eventually moves to a test of the highs. If, somehow, 67..25 holds, then perhaps we see another downdraft to new lows below 1981.50.

In the more bullish case: If you take 2068 - 1981.50, you get 86.50 (or 86 if we use 1982) for what appears to be a five wave move off the bottom. If we take 86 from the all time intraday high of 2119.50, that gives us a pullback target of 2033.50. If we take 86.5 from the all time closing high of 2113.25, we get a pullback target of 2026.75. So the expected pullback range - even if we assume a move back up to the highs - is 2026.75 - 2033. Those two numbers also correspond with the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for the 1981.50 - 2068 up move that just occurred (2035 and 2024 respectively - with 2047 being the 23.6% retrace).

That is why I am reticent to dump uvxy - despite the obvious pain in holding this right now.

In retrospect, the minute 2021 was violated on a 60-minute close yesterday, we should've been out of the bearish plays. We could've tried them again at 41 - 44.50 and 51 with stops on closes above 45 and 51 respectively. We would have lost on all those, but the losses wouldn't have been this painful and at least we could say we were being smart / disciplined with our stops. Lesson learned the hard way.

Posted to Peak Analytics' Direction F… on Jun 29, 2016 — 6:06 PM
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Excellent advice these last turbulent months...
Wide stop loss and small at profit taking but that's their style.
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